Equity markets are giving mixed signals. Many people are wondering whether the markets will go up or down from here.Here is my take.Below are the factors which could lead to further market decline:1. Tariff wars leading to retaliatory actions from different countries. In such wars, everyone suffers. It leads to inefficiency, unpredictability, and distrust in the system, leading to higher inflation and a slowdown.2. Disappointing corporate profitability: Uncertainty results in delayed decisions and outcomes. A correction in…
There has been a raging debate about active versus passive funds for many years.John Bogle, the father of index investing, has popularized the concept of passive funds. His idea was simple – most active funds underperform the index in the USA after costs (including taxes) and therefore one should invest in low-cost funds that mimic holdings of an index.These passive funds are also traded on stock exchanges and are known as exchange-traded funds (ETFs).The concept has…
I met a client whose father passed away recently. He had no idea of where the investments were made by his father.After a lot of trouble, he could access a few details from his father’s email inbox and WhatsApp messages. The investments were all over the place and he was not even sure if all the assets were accounted for.Check out these mind-boggling numbers from India:- Despite tech initiatives and public awareness campaigns, the unclaimed monies held by…
India’s 1-year G-Sec is trading at 6.75% and 10-year G-sec yields 6.85%. The difference is only 0.10%.5-year G-sec is trading at 6.76%—almost at the same level as 1-year G-sec. This indicates that the yield curve is flat.There is a peculiar situation here. Usually, as the duration of any debt security increases (from the same issuer, in this case, it is GOI), the yield also goes up. Because an investor would want a premium for an investment that…
Real Estate investment never leads to losses. I have heard this from many investors. Is it true?Generally, people look at losses with reference to their initial purchase price. If the investment is sold below the purchase price, it is a loss. If the investment is sold above the purchase price, it is a gain.So, when real estate prices go down, people tend to hold on to their investments and don’t sell them. This gives them…
Here is what we are doing to efficiently manage investments after accounting for the budget changes.The Positive impacts: – Investments in Gold funds qualify for LTCG (Long Term Capital Gain) at 12.5% after 2 years of holding. Gold is an important asset class in a globally uncertain environment and should have a 10-15% portfolio allocation.- International investments through mutual funds also qualify for LTCG at 12.5% after 2 years of holding. This is a big relief for…
After a sparkling rally in Gold & Silver over the last few years, many investors have become interested in the glitter of the precious metals. Gold & Silver are up by ~23% & ~28% y-o-y (as of 30 Jun’24). In 2018, we decided to have a Gold allocation of ~15% to all our client’s portfolios owing to macroeconomic developments.What has been driving Gold & Silver prices & are these factors sustainable?Gold- Debasement of currency: Unabated printing of money…
The last and the seventh phase of the election will be completed on 1st June. Exit polls will be announced on that day itself and election results will be declared on 4th June.There could be the following three broader outcomes on 4th June:Outcome #1 NDA forming the government with BJP winning the full majority on its own: This is the most probabilistic scenario as per the investment community which means that this scenario is already discounted in the stock…